ABSTRACT
In the period of the 1970’s, Agriculture was the main stay of the Nigeria economy. The oil boom of 1970’s brought about a gradual shift from agriculture to crude oil making Nigeria to depend heavily on petroleum as main source of foreign exchange earnings. Agriculture sector which use to be the back bone of the economy was rendered competitive over time. The crux of this study is to analyze the revenue generated from selected non-oil produce in Nigeria. Data were obtained from secondary source mainly from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to determine model fitness; Time series graph was used to determine the behaviour of the data over time, forecast was also made for both cash crop and livestock for the next thirty years.
The findings reveal that cash crops and livestock revenue has positive effect on the growth of Nigeria economy during the period under review (1981-2014), though the performance in terms of output level and revenue generation was below expectation. This study recommends the need to increase production in agricultural sector to ensure product availability for both local and export purpose. Also, there is need to complete the export processing zones in earnest to promote the establishment of export oriented firms that will produce solely for export market.
TABLE OF CONTENT
TITLE PAGE I
CERTIFICATION II
DEDICATION III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IV
ABSTRACT VI
TABLE OF CONTENT VII
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Importance of Non-Oil Export To The Nigeria Economy 8
1.2 Background of the Study 12
1.3 Aims and Objectives of the Study 21
1.4 Objective of the Study 21
1.5 Scope and Limitation of the Study 22
1.6 Definition of Term 22
1.7 Source of Data 23
CHAPTER TWO: INTRODUCTION
2.1 Literature Review 24
2.2 Definition of Some Terms and Concept 29
2.2.1 Objective of Time Series 29
2.2.2 Components of Time Series 31
2.2.2.1 Trend or Secular Movement 31
2.2.2.2 Cyclical Movement or Variation 32
2.2.2.3 Seasonal Movement or Variation 32
2.2.2.4 Irregular Movement or Variation 33
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Time Series Graph 34
3.2 Forecasting 35
3.3 Akaike Information Criterions 36
3.4 Data Collection 38
3.5 Ways of Data Collection 39
CHPATER FOUR
4.1 Presentation of Data and Interpretation of Results 42
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary 66
5.2 Conclusions 67
5.3 Recommendations 67
REFERENCES 69